There are many people who believe that Bill Self has a history of stubbornly choosing to play less talented players over more talented players because they are “more experienced” or have “earned his trust”, even if these players Bill trusts are not as good as the younger more talented players. People believe this for any of the following reasons:
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They incorrectly interpret the player Bill Self has playing fewer minutes as being a better basketball player than the player Bill Self has playing more minutes. This is often due to the assumption that a player with more long-term potential is the better choice in any given moment. (example: jOSh SeLbY wAs bEtTeR tHan TyReL ReeD iN 2011)
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They make an unwarranted assumption that playing a talented but still developing player will make him develop at an unprecedented rate and make him reach or near his full potential by March. (example: Had Bill started Cheick Diallo over Landen Lucas, he would have developed at a historically quick rate, from an athletic but raw project into a star, all in-time for March Madness!)
There are many examples of why this is wrong. Darnell Jackson was a better player than Cole Aldrich in 2008, despite being less talented. Bill played Darnell over Cole all season. In 2020, future NBA starter and champion Christian Braun was on the roster, but so were older wings Marcus Garrett and Isaiah Moss. Bill started Garrett and Moss and had Braun come off the bench. Braun stuck around and developed into a star, but it took three years instead of three months. The results speak for themselves. Other examples would be Tyrel Reed playing over Josh Selby in 2011, Landen Lucas playing over Cheick Diallo in 2016 and Travis Releford playing over Andrew White III in 2013.
Contrary to popular belief, these were all correct decisions. Christian Braun’s freshman self would not have transformed into his junior self by starting over Marcus Garrett. Examples abound, this is just the tip of the iceberg.
Some might argue, “well, it worked out those times, but choosing the more experienced player isn’t ALWAYS the right move. In some cases, Bill needs to go with the more talented player.”
Yes! That is absolutely correct. That is why Bill often DOES go with a younger and more talented player. The cases in which he does this are not random, but are the cases in which the younger and more talented player is better than the older and more experienced one.
In 2010 Brady Morningstar, a veteran starter from the previous year returned. Bill Self started freshman Xavier Henry over him.
In 2011, Self initially turned back to Morningstar, until Josh Selby became eligible after a suspension. After two games of kick-ass play by Selby, Self gave him Morningstar’s starting spot. Then Selby became injured, missed some time, and came back a different player. He could no longer score or defend, and he turned the ball over at a high rate. In this case, Self continued to start Morningstar. Hmmm, it seems as though Bill just starts the better player instead of stubbornly starting a favorite.
Other examples of Bill going with the newcomer over a veteran who had his trust are: Udoka Azubuike over Landen Lucas (until Doke’s injury), Josh Jackson over LaGerald Vick, Mario Chalmers +Brandon Rush + Russell Robinson over Jeff Hawkins.
Clearly, Bill does not refuse to play newer but less talented players over veterans. People who want to discredit Bill and his decisions just ignore the cases in which he does.
It is quite obvious, that Bill chooses to play the best players. Sometimes that is the veteran, sometimes its the young guy.
Having cleared up that misconception, I also want to clear up something else. Many people seem to think that choosing the wrong rotation players is the only possible cause of an early exit in March. They argue, in essence:
“Had Bill Self started player X over player Y, player X would have developed into a star rapidly and would have carried us to a successful run in March. While starting player Y may have been fine for us to have a great regular season, his deficiencies kicked-in in March Madness.”
When such people make this argument, they are either making one of the two mistakes listed earlier in this text, or they are making mistake number 3:
- They fail to account for the fact that bad luck, an uncharacteristically bad performance, injuries, or a choke job can result in an early exit in March.
For example, in 2011 and 2017 we choked. We did not have the toughness to handle the elite 8. We had more talent and better players on the court than VCU/Oregon, but we crumbled, bricking shots we normally make. The leap of faith that Josh Selby and Cheick Diallo, who were not good players prior to the tournament, would have shown up, kept us from choking, and been tournament heroes simply has no basis. There was certainly bad luck in these exits (VCU and Oregon both had career days from 3), but we still could have and probably would have won, had we played with poise.
In 2016 and 2023 I would argue that it was more bad luck than choking (although it was a little of both). In 2016, despite being the best team in the country and the number 1 overall seed, we were given the second-best team in the country and the only team that could beat us (Villanova) as our 2 seed. We played a close game, that could have gone either way, and they took the cake. In 2023, we were given an 8-seed that had underachieved all season and had top-10 talent. Plus, before facing them, our coach had to go to the hospital. These factors caused us to lose. Playing DaJuan (who had 12 points, 5 assists, and 2 steals) and KJ (who had 14 points) instead of Pettiford and Ejiofor did not cause us to lose that game.
As someone who tends to be suspicious of extremist beliefs, I think Bill is a good coach and do not want him to be fired. However, my one criticism of him is that he is bad at mentally preparing us for the NCAA tournament. We won it twice, which is great, but I think we would have won 4 or 5 titles under him had we consistently played as well in the tournament as we had in Big 12 play. There are, in my opinion, too many examples of us playing our worst game of the season in the elite 8 (or an earlier tournament round) for it to just be happenstance. We choke. A lot.
But that is really the only reasonable criticism one can make of Bill Self. The internet notion that he is too stubborn and gives favoritism to older players is objectively false.
Now, using my psychic powers, I will guess that all replies to this will fit into the following categories. I will reply to replies in order to classify each one. I can explain if requested to do so.
A. Agreement
B. Agreement in general but disagreement with a minor detail
C. Disagreement due to misinterpretation of who the best players in a given moment are
D. Disagreement due to the assumption that playing a talented but young player will develop at warp speed if given more playing time or a longer leash.
E. Disagreement due to the false belief that an early March exit is due to mismanaging player minutes.
