The democratic nominee
-
I am shocked that Buttigieg is gaining ground. I’m still waiting for the flameout, and I expect people to stay in the race assuming the same thing. Past NH, at some point, Pete will fall and the moderate votes still represent the majority.
-
I like him
-
@Crimsonandblue22 like… you like him the best of the Democrats?
He seems like a decent a person, but I didn’t expect the needle to move in his favor over the last few weeks. He doesn’t seem to be winning these debates to me, and I didn’t expect people to turn out for him.
-
He matches my likes! Healthcare and I don’t want the free college loan handouts. I like he’s a military guy and smarter than crap. I like that he’s young. I think he’ll surround himself w/great experienced people. I think Bidens losing it, to old. I’d love to see any of them debate trump! He won’t do it.
-
@Crimsonorblue22 said in The democratic nominee:
He matches my likes! Healthcare and I don’t want the free college loan handouts.
I don’t think free college education or universal healthcare are the answer as one size fits all solutions. I like Yang’s UBI better. That would be flexible, whether your current need is to put it toward health car or college loan.
I like he’s a military guy and smarter than crap. I like that he’s young. I think he’ll surround himself w/great experienced people. I think Bidens losing it, to old.
I like that he’s smart. I don’t know how I feel about him being military, because I’m trying to decide whether I am ok with him serving abroad as a resume builder for his future political career. I heard an interview where he rationalized that he didn’t serve to pad his political resume, but that he’d be disingenous if he said that he didn’t think that experiencing foreign service would help him be a better president, or something like that. Felt Tracy Flick-like to me.
I think Biden’s unraveling too. I also think being a little younger would help him identify better with where the US currently stands, in terms of impending issues and culturally.
Same for Bernie. I feel like his hardliner act is both appealing and slightly out of touch; I don’t know that he grasps the nuances of where America is positioned right now and current American culture, which matters in terms of how electable he is.
Yang by contrast, seems very in touch with where we are. He understands what talking points are impactful with so little time to speak, as well as where we are headed as a country. No one on that stage understands the problem of automation better than Yang, and I think in 4 years you’re going to see a lot of people say “wait a second, this guy was trying to tell us something”. We may see Yang again, with more support.
Klobuchar I think is flexible enough to steer the ship and would also surround herself with excellent people. To me, she looks the most presidential.
I’d love to see any of them debate trump! He won’t do it.
I never considered that he wouldn’t debate. You really think so?
-
I heard that. I can’t imagine him trying.
-
@Crimsonorblue22 Are you saying that you’ve heard Mayor Pete won’t debate Trump?
-
@bcjayhawk trump won’t debate anyone
-
Thanks. I hadn’t heard that. It surprises me, though, because Trump always says he’s the best at everything.
-
@bcjayhawk key words, says he is! Lol
-
Trump will be in the debates. His campaign is always prepping.
-
@FarmerJayhawk I can’t wait!
-
Which of the candidates do you think would beat Trump most heartily in a debate?
-
@approxinfinity said in The democratic nominee:
Which of the candidates do you think would beat Trump most heartily in a debate?
Klobuchar. Pete and Warren are too canned, Biden forgets what day it is, and Bernie would lose his cool and have a coronary.
-
@FarmerJayhawk I was thinking pretty much the same. I also worry that Yang and Pete are too green and may not have the depth of knowledge you would want when off their message.
-
I think Klobuchar would beat the dirt out of his rug.
-
@approxinfinity Pete! Kamela would have killed him too
-
I don’t know. Kamala was too much about race. I don’t think he’d take the bait like she’d think he would. Kamala felt like her own brand of crazy narcissist.
-
She’s a tough prosecutor! Everyone of them excluding the old guys, would kill him! His vocabulary is limited and he can’t intimidate them! Maybe they could do maps, he could bring his sharpie and point out ks or mizzou!
what an idiot! I really did hear he won’t do a debate.
-
Trump debates aren’t even debates. The words out of his mouth are so meaningless at this point I don’t think that any Dem challenger should debate him either. How do you prep for a policy debate against a man who says one thing while actively doing the exact opposite?
You can’t hit him on it because he just said that is what he supports. Or he’ll just say “WRONG” into the microphone with anything you say whether it’s true or not.
So, what I think the Dem challenger should do is host a televised rally, townhall or interview every single night after they win the nomination. Stick to policy and hit him on his policy when he can’t spin it or lie about it. Do not give Trump a platform with independents where he can sell them snake oil. Force him to choose between campaigning and golf. Force him to try to keep up with you.
But that’s just my opinion. I’m sure whoever the Dem candidate is will run another terrible campaign.
-
@Kcmatt7 said in The democratic nominee:
But that’s just my opinion. I’m sure whoever the Dem candidate is will run another terrible campaign.
“And by the way, I’ve got a plan for the Midwest — and we can include New Hampshire as well,” Klobuchar told Sunday’s middle school gym crowd. “We’re going to build a beautiful blue wall around these states, and we’re going to make Donald Trump pay for it.”
… Amy needs Biden to fall apart, swallow his camp, then grab Warren’s supporters who are caught between 1) wanting a progressive and 2) wanting to vote for a woman who has people skills and is capable of compromise (i.e. not wanting to jump ship for Bernie when it’s clear he’s the progressive left standing). She has a path. Then if she can get Biden, Yang and Dave Chapelle to turn out the minority vote in the South she’d be alright!
I think it’ll become more clear that Pete isn’t a moderate. He’s further left than Klobuchar. If she can paint that picture, I think he’ll get stuck between being not progressive enough for Bernie people and not moderate enough for everyone else… or he’ll beat them both by convincing the country that he’s positioned in the sweet spot between both @Crimsonorblue22
-
@approxinfinity Pete would be winning by a landslide if he wasn’t gay. I believe that.
But he is. So I think Amy has the best chance of beating Trump. She’d secure MN, WI and MI. So she had the most room for error.
I think Bernie will get the nomination and middle America will vote Trump again because once again they were given “two bad choices and they had to choose the lesser evil.”
The only reason I’m not opposed to Bernie is because I think he could still win. He’s polled fine against Trump in swing states. He worries me in the WI, MN and MI area though… but even the most recent Florida poll has him beating Trump. I don’t mean to take that as gospel, but he’d at least compete is my point.
I don’t want Biden. He would lose.
I think Bloomberg would win because he’d spend $1B to win. I just think that’s a poor way to govern. I think the funny thing is his flaws are roughly the same as Trumps, only he has some semblance of integrity as evidence by how people trust Bloomberg as a news source.
Warren would lose. She might be the smartest and most qualified out of the bunch. But there is just something there that people don’t like. She’d struggle to win, imo.
-
Amy holding strong at 20ish %. She is ramping up her efforts in Nevada and placed two ads there starting tomorrow.
-
@Kcmatt7 It looks like Warren and Biden won’t be an issue much longer. We will be left with only (legit) people that we can agree have a chance against Trump.
-
I wonder who is going to steal Biden’s thunder in SC. Could make things a lot easier if he underperforms there.
-
Pete has a minority voter and ground game problem. That campaing is well-organized in Iowa and NH, but not many other spots.
D’s now have a fairly big problem with a split decision in Iowa/NH. Oddly enough, Biden still has a pretty strong argument to make he’s the most viable in swing states given his popularity with minority voters. I think his natural heir in the field if his collapse continues is Bloomberg. SC D voters are very non-ideological and transactional. I don’t think he’ll do great in SC since he’s not really playing there, but he certainly could get in late given his unlimited resources.
Bernie is definitely the favorite at this point, but the narrative around his candidacy is taking on water. He isn’t bringing out new voters. Iowa turnout was about on par with 16 (way down from 08) and NH is down from 16. I don’t see his revolution schtick at all. But I will say he’s got a good ground game and will over perform his popular vote share in the delegate count, which is really all that matters.
Amy has a ground game and money problem. She may surprise in Nevada, but she doesn’t have the capacity to move the metaphorical mountain on Super Tuesday. She hasn’t even polled above 2% in SC since October.
My dark horse is Steyer. He’s going to do well in SC and has a massive war chest.
Also, the knives will start to come out. Some R friends of mine gave me a preview of some of the oppo about to drop and it’s going to get really, really ugly.
Everyone else might as well call it quits.
-
So Steyer is all over the airwaves in SC. The Biden spoiler. Interesting. Never considered that.
-
Oh yes. He’s polling a solid second behind Biden right now. The odds of a floor fight are growing.
-
@FarmerJayhawk how is Amy going to appeal to the black vote? What’s her best play there? Does it matter if she performs in SC right now? What does she need to show in SC?
-
I was impressed to see Klobuchar on Fox a few days ago and on The View. She’s trying to get exposure to moderate Republicans. Who else is doing that?
-
@approxinfinity said in The democratic nominee:
@FarmerJayhawk how is Amy going to appeal to the black vote? What’s her best play there? Does it matter if she performs in SC right now? What does she need to show in SC?
She has to over perform in Nevada (beat Pete and Biden) then maybe win South Carolina. At some point she has to win. She’s maybe the least ready to rumble on Super Tuesday. The only state she may win is Minnesota. Honestly I don’t really see a path for her. Seems very Kasich to me.
-
Then it’s probably Buttigieg. Bernie’s supporters are committed but he’s not going to get more votes unless Pete drops out.
-
I want to hear Buttigieg speak tonight. Klobuchars speech was essentially her stump speech, same jokes and turns of phrase. One of the voters in NH was talking about how Pete was a fast thinker and able to speak off the cuff eloquently. With that in mind I want see him speak off the cuff.
-
I don’t really see a path for Pete either. Not very organized in Super Tuesday states and not polling well at all in Nevada or SC. Has never clicked with minority voters. He’s probably toast if he gets 5th in NV and SC.
If I had to put them in order of likelihood: Bernie, Biden, Bloomberg… Steyer… Pete, Amy
-
I’m no democrat, but if I was I’d vote Buttigieg. I think he is the best chance for the DNC. Only thing he doesn’t do well with the African American voters. Tough.
-
Watching Pete’s speech right now to his NH supporters. Excellent.
-
If my math is right (big if) Pete will come away with more delegates by a couple.
-
“And let me say that this victory right here, is the beginning of the end for Donald Trump.”
You’re a bad, bad man Bernie. Yeah @Kcmatt7, Bernie will beat Trump. @Crimsonorblue22 when you said “everyone besides the old guys” for who could out debate Trump, you were referring to Biden and… Sanders? The guy on my TV right now is going to beat the crap out of Trump in a debate.
-
Here comes the oppo… BTW, Culinary is basically Harry Reid’s political arm and supports Biden. https://twitter.com/ralstonreports/status/1227443066526687233?s=21
-
1.6%, Pete really narrowed the gap.
-
Fun national poll result; 2nd choice of Biden supporters: Bernie 28%, Bloomberg 23%, Warren 16%. Voters tend to be less ideological than we assume.
-
@FarmerJayhawk said in The democratic nominee:
Fun national poll result; 2nd choice of Biden supporters: Bernie 28%, Bloomberg 23%, Warren 16%. Voters tend to be less ideological than we assume.
Interesting. Part of that I think is that Bernie has been campaigning hard with minorities. Referred to as “Uncle Bernie” by his Hispanic supporters.
Yeah, also the narrative that this is a race of moderates vs progressives is divisive, language that Fox is happy to chuck about. It’s more in the interest of unity to look at the field as multifarious
-
@approxinfinity said in The democratic nominee:
@FarmerJayhawk said in The democratic nominee:
Fun national poll result; 2nd choice of Biden supporters: Bernie 28%, Bloomberg 23%, Warren 16%. Voters tend to be less ideological than we assume.
Interesting. Part of that I think is that Bernie has been campaigning hard with minorities. Referred to as “Uncle Bernie” by his Hispanic supporters.
Yeah, also the narrative that this is a race of moderates vs progressives is divisive, language that Fox is happy to chuck about. It’s more in the interest of unity to look at the field as multifarious
Nevada is going to be a fun stress test of that appeal. Been on MSNBC most of the night and they talk about it quite a lot as well. Easy shorthand for folks to wrap their heads around, but doesn’t really match most voters.
-
So Bloomberg presumably comes in with the attack ads on Trump en force. Because thats how he brands himself, like a rich cavalry swooping in over the hills to help the good guys in the skirmish. He can’t attack the Dems, at least at first, because he’ll be instantly hated.
So does a prolonged attack campaign against Trump help the Democratic cause? My guess is yes? But I hope its done well, because for better or worse, it will be what determines if the Democrats can attract voters outside the party.
-
From living in NC, Bloomberg is EVERYWHERE on TV. Big sporting event, news event, local newscast, you name it. He’s on the air. I’ve seen ads from 3 candidates so far: Trump, Bloomberg, and Steyer.
My theory is Bloomberg is running for POTUS in part because candidates get all the best advertising rates from TV stations, where Super PACs get much higher rates. He can act as a D Super PAC and carpet bomb Trump at about a third the cost of a real Super PAC.
-
NH is Bernie’s backyard. For Pete to come into New England and nearly match him is saying something. But yes – it is a predominately white state and things may change in other states.
-
@FarmerJayhawk I have seen not a single political ad in Virginia save Trump during the Superbowl yet. Hadn’t occurred to me about the ad rates. Very interesting.
Bloomberg prefers Bernie to Trump, right? (I admittedly know very little about Bloomberg)
What grade would you give Bloomberg’s ads? What is the content like? What do you think the impact of the ads you’ve seen thus far would be?
-
While you are talking political advertising… this was interesting to me… https://www.wired.com/story/right-left-news-site-ad-tracking/
Conservative News Sites Track You Lots More Than Left-Leaning Ones
One analysis of news outlets found that the median popular right-wing site planted 73 percent more cookies than its left-wing counterpart.
-
@bskeet hmm! I knew I shouldn’t have read those Fox News articles… I get texted by Republican groups all the time. Annoys the hell out of me.
-
@approxinfinity you know… that’s a really great question. I bet both give him the willies for different reasons (Trump is just an awful person/POTUS and Bernie loathes people like Bloomberg) but I think he’d probably vote for Bernie over Trump.
I think they’re good. He has an A+ media team, in part because he’s paying well above market for great staff. Very non-ideological, get stuff done kind of ads. His ad about getting fired then starting Bloomberg media is really good. I don’t care for Bloomberg the politician but his campaign is solid.
Hmmm… would be interesting to figure out how you got on their text list. Most times campaigns buy, sell, and lease lists like Hertz
