2021-22 PER's & Stats
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Any who…. KU is still 8 in kenpom. #3 offense previous #3 #36 defense previous #30
That wasn’t a bad loss now that I have a day of whining under my belt.
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@rockchalkwyo said in 2021-22 PER's & Stats:
Any who…. KU is still 8 in kenpom. #3 offense previous #3 #36 defense previous #30
That wasn’t a bad loss now that I have a day of whining under my belt.
It wasn’t a bad loss from the perspective of losing a close game to a ranked team on their home court.
But from the perspective that it’s most points UT has scored in more than 2 months (and against UT - Rio Grande Valley or something) - that our end of each half execution was abysmal - that we missed crucial FTs in crunch time - that we committed numerous unforced TOs - that we gave up numerous to ORBs to a team that isn’t particularly good at rebounding - and given that we could have easily picked up a good road win and gotten a big leg up on the B12 title - it was a bad loss…
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Updated post Texas Letdown. Added Torvik, Massey Ratings, Bracket Matrix projection for March.
Points
PER’s
Kenpom, Torvik, Massey, Bracket Matrix
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Added the Sagarin Ratings
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@BeddieKU23 Basically all of this is telling the same story. The O is elite, the D is pretty good.
Something positive here - this team has better metrics than the 17-18 FF team that I think plays a pretty similar run and gun style. That team did okay… I think they were slightly better offensively (everyone on the floor could score). And they had a Doke who was an okay rim protector that season. But this team has two NBA wings. Jalen is a future pro. Dave is a future pro. (Not NBA but pro somewhere). So this team definitely has enough talent to still make a run. Especially if they are playing their best ball here in February like they seem to be.
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Yupp we are better then most out there. Need to stay healthy or get some guys healthy again.
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Purdue had a Texas game, too. Only they got walloped:
“Just two days after reclaiming a share of the Big Ten lead with a convincing 16-point win over No. 13 Illinois, No. 3 Purdue turned in a dud on Thursday night in an 82-58 loss at Michigan. The outcome ends a six-game winning streak for the Boilermakers (21-4, 10-4 Big Ten) and gives Michigan’s NCAA Tournament resume a much-needed boost.”
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Purdue’s defense is 126th on Kenpom now. I thought Iowa from last season would be the worst defense for a top 10 offense we’d see in our lifetimes.
But just one year later Matt Painter has quite possibly the biggest disparity between offense and defense in CBB history. It is really insane.
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Updated post Oklahoma/Oklahoma St wins
Ochai in #27th place all time. Dave creeping towards 1,000, needs 48 points to get to #62 all-time.
PER’s-
Zach for MVP LOL
Kenpom & Torvik
Massey, Sagarin, Bracket Matrix
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Zac is a bad ass. I tweeted him when he first signed, and he tweeted back, which was surprising. So happy he was the first big off the bench last night. Unleash the…ZACKKEN!
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This is like the exact thing we needed in order to keep both him and KJ I think. I was a little bit worried that we would lose one of them, but I’m hoping this is a good sign.
I admit I was HARSH on Zach early in the year. But he keeps putting up good numbers, and good things happen with him on the floor. At this point I’m really hopeful that him and KJ both hang around and anchor the front court. I think we are going to be spoiled next season.
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Zach is instant offense. He starts here next season imo.
I think he got overlooked a bit coming in because of the expected freshman growing pains under Self. He needs to continue to work on defense & his body in the offseason but there’s no doubt he’s a very skilled player. So happy he’s back healthy enough to play because these are valuable minutes. I think the Zach/Yesufu bench rotation has elevated our ceiling.
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@BeddieKU23 When he got the lob bucket last night, it just felt like a big moment to me. Where he showed he was big and strong enough to push another big man around. I’m sure Bill was pleased
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Yeah that was a really solid play from him. There is tremendous upside to his offensive skill if he gets that lower body good enough to bang in the post when needed. He really is an offseason away from being a duel inside/out threat on the regular
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This is never going to be a “Self hates Zach” narrative. Bill’s pants fit weird when he thinks about Bobby and Zach anchoring this squad for the next few years.
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@FarmerJayhawk said in 2021-22 PER's & Stats:
This is never going to be a “Self hates Zach” narrative. Bill’s pants fit weird when he thinks about Bobby and Zach anchoring this squad for the next few years.
Yeah the word has always been super positive about Zach. Practices the right way etc…
I think we might have seen this sooner if not for the toe injury.
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Updated post WVU win
Och hits 500 points and Dave 24 points from 1,000!!
Kenpom, Torvik, Massey, Sagarin all liked the win.
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WVU offense that game would make any defense look good!
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@benshawks08 said in 2021-22 PER's & Stats:
WVU offense that game would make any defense look good!
Offensive offense
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47th to 28th . I’ll take it…
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@Jethro said in 2021-22 PER's & Stats:
47th to 28th . I’ll take it…
Trending decently in February so far. Only giving up 64 ppg this month with 2 more to go.
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@BeddieKU23 said in 2021-22 PER's & Stats:
Trending decently in February so far. Only giving up 64 ppg this month with 2 more to go.
KSU won’t crack 60 tomorrow. Book it.
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@tis4tim said in 2021-22 PER's & Stats:
@BeddieKU23 said in 2021-22 PER's & Stats:
Trending decently in February so far. Only giving up 64 ppg this month with 2 more to go.
KSU won’t crack 60 tomorrow. Book it.
As long as Pack doesn’t have 35 again I’d agree
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@BeddieKU23 said in 2021-22 PER's & Stats:
As long as Pack doesn’t have 35 again I’d agree
I’d wager Bill is challenging Harris’ manhood even now in regards to guarding Pack. He’ll be lucky to score half that tomorrow.
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Thanking you again.
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Last year he scored 10 pts on 4-10 shooting & 2-5 from 3 in Allen.
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Pack season avg 17.1 I’ll take that though 42% on threes is a bit scary.
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He’s a very good shooter. He can get his as long as nobody else does
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KU #5 in the AP Poll. Baylor #10. It’s on this weekend.
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@BeddieKU23 said in 2021-22 PER's & Stats:
@Jethro said in 2021-22 PER's & Stats:
47th to 28th . I’ll take it…
Trending decently in February so far. Only giving up 64 ppg this month with 2 more to go.
Our rating hasn’t improved much though right? Our ranking has, but the rating has pretty much held at 94? Meaning teams in front of us are sucking and we are holding serve.
94.2 d rating is 28th this year, but would have been tied for 44th a year ago. Just something to chew on
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I haven’t tracked it on an individual game to game basis but believe its trending slightly better in February from what I recall when I update it after every game. I could be wrong there though. I’ll start tracking our actual ratings starting now to see if we see any meaningful trend there. They are giving up 4 less ppg then the previous 3 months so even if the metrics don’t say it this defense has given up less points so far in February. Obviously we need to finish this week out to have all data there
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https://vm.tiktok.com/TTPdSYrpue/
Some metric tourney breakdown stuff in the video. Apparently we don’t have a shot at the title…
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@benshawks08 said in 2021-22 PER's & Stats:
Some metric tourney breakdown stuff in the video. Apparently we don’t have a shot at the title…
As long as we’re in the tourney, we have a shot. That’s good enough for me.
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@tis4tim Same! First time for everything! And I just refuse to believe Texas has a better shot than we do.
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@Kcmatt7 Just a thought- maybe our great offense leads to worse defense. If you go back and look at our worst defense, it was Doke, Devonte, Malik, … that crew. They were also top 5 offensively. And they went to the Final Four. I don’t think we have to be Top 5 in defense to make a run. I know everyone is worried that our defense will let us down, but the other side of the coin is we’ve learned how to score against the number 1 ranked defensive schedule in America. And we’re 22-4, leading the best conference in the nation by 2 games. That’s strong as horseradish.
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@Jethro I’m just really pointing out that while it looks like the defense has improved by rankings, might not actually be the case.
I think this team is capable of a FF run for sure
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Ochai passed Wilt Chamberlain last night for 26th place all-time on the scoring list.
With 4 games left in the regular season Ochai is on pace to be in #21st place all-time passing Drew Gooden.
From there it’s realistic that he could pass Calvin Thompson, Kenny Gregory, Jeff Boschee & Tyshawn Taylor at his current scoring average in the Big-12 tournament putting him #17 place heading into the NCAA Tourney.
PER’s. Yesufu & Wilson saw decent sized bumps for this late in the season.
Analytics liked this win. Now 3rd overall in Bracket Matrix. Offense went up on both Kenpom/Torvik while D slightly down. Kenpom overall rating slightly up and trending towards the 2011-12 squad that made the finals.
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Updated post Baylor letdown.
Och needs 7 pts to pass Brandon Rush for #25th place. Dave is 9 points from 1,000 in his career. CB within reach of 1,000 depending on how post season tournaments go.
PER’s
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If KU plays 8 more games (3 regular season, 2 in Big XII tourney, 3 in NCAA) CB should get to 1000 this year. He needs just 118 points, so if he gets 15 ppg, that gets him there.
For Agbaji, if he gets 8 more games, he probably lands somewhere between Wayne Simien (1593 points) and Mark Randall (1627 points). A long postseason could maybe get Agbaji within striking distance of Kevin Pritchard (1692 points), but that would almost certainly require a trip to the Big 12 title game and a trip to the Final Four to give him extra games.
No matter what, it’s unlikely Agbaji catches Devonte Graham (1750 points), but he should settle nicely into the top 20 all time. That’s a pretty great career by any measure.
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A bit unlucky too since he redshirted half a year and missed the 2020 post season. There’s no telling how many points he’d have under slightly different outcomes
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@BeddieKU23 said in 2021-22 PER's & Stats:
A bit unlucky too since he redshirted half a year and missed the 2020 post season. There’s no telling how many points he’d have under slightly different outcomes
Ochai missed 14 games due to redshirting and averaged 8.5 ppg that year so probably somewhere around 120 points from his freshman year and he missed up to 9 games 2 years ago averaging 10 ppg. So ballpark would probably be around 200 more points if Ochai played a full slate each of his first 2 seasons.
Those extra games could’ve had Ochai challenging Frank Mason and Sherron Collins to be in the top 5 all time scorers at KU.
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Updated for end of regular season
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Updated after West Virginia blowout
Ochai is 16 points away from the Top 20 all-time scoring list. He sits in #21st place with 1,532 points and passed 600 points for the season yesterday. He needs 4 3’s to pass Svi for 4th all-time in made 3 pointers.
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Thank you your royal nerdness! Looks like we have a bit of work left to complete.
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Yesterday’s game was helpful on the numbers
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It’s probably harder to move the ratings this late i’m guessing.
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Where does this current team fall in the Self era on Kenpom? The two teams (one above, one below) with similar Kenpom ratings lost in 2nd round & Sweet 16.
Now if we compare which teams compare similar to this years squad via Offense & Defensive rank
Those 3 teams lost in the 2nd round, Elite 8 & Final 4. Interesting stuff. Let’s hope they got a 2017-18 run and further in them
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I would imagine so, yesterday’s game was almost 3/4 of a pt improvement in overall rating so interesting at the least.
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A good update, updating for after the Big-12 Tournament win and earning another #1 seed!!!
Some significant milestones on the horizon for KU players the more games we play. Ochai is about 100 points off Frank Mason’s single season record for points under Self. He sits in #18th place all time on the scoring list, will very likely pass Tyshawn Taylor for #17th on Thursday & needs 24 to pass Wayne Simien in 16th. 14th place is attainable and hopefully he gets there.
Christian Braun is only 49 points away from 1,000 points in his Jr year. He’s already ahead of Ochai’s pace (Och had 920 coming into this year) so he’s set up extremely well if he comes back for his Sr year to have one of those seasons that get’s him into the Top 20 all-time as well.
Remy Martin is 71 pts away from 2,000 for his career. The way he scored in KC makes this feat attainable for him. Remy is starting to play like the preseason Big-12 POY he was tabbed to be.
Positive movement on the Analytics
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The past KU teams that this squad compares the best too. Same as last update. We’ll see what happens
