All Politicked Out? Election 2020
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Early exit poll data supports this but yeah I’m extremely interested to see the full info.
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@FarmerJayhawk I don’t think the government hires the best and brightest IT people at all. They’re paid less than in the private sector, with less interest work using old technologies. Also, the government has done a poor job with contracting IT companies who are similarly below the grade. While not the Government, see the most recent DNC contract re: the app developed by Shadow for the Iowa Caucus. Amateur hour.
This would obviously have to be done by people who know what they’re doing. This is simply at its core the guaranteeing of one piece of data (ballot with a few fields) that may be written once only per unique user, and then have an adequate checksum system / redundancy to guarantee its integrity / availability. This does not seem very hard in theory tbh. We aren’t talking about continued access to update the data. One time. Read only thereafter. They need to do one simple thing but do it very well.
Hire the best and brightest. Make it transparent and redundant.
Fear should not stop us from progress.
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@approxinfinity said in All Politicked Out? Election 2020:
@FarmerJayhawk I don’t think the government hires the best and brightest IT people at all. They’re paid less than in the private sector, with less interest work using old technologies. Also, the government has done a poor job with contracting IT companies who are similarly below the grade. While not the Government, see the most recent DNC contract re: the app developed by Shadow for the Iowa Caucus. Amateur hour.
This would obviously have to be done by people who know what they’re doing. This is simply at its core the guaranteeing of one piece of data (ballot with a few fields) that may be written once only per unique user, and then have an adequate checksum system / redundancy to guarantee its integrity / availability. This does not seem very hard in theory tbh. We aren’t talking about continued access to update the data. One time. Read only thereafter. They need to do one simple thing but do it very well.
Hire the best and brightest. Make it transparent and redundant.
Fear should not stop us from progress.
Key point there: in theory. We don’t have any track record of being able to secure people’s data. Not in the public or private sectors. Feels like I’m in constant free credit monitoring because of some breach by a random Russian kid. I’m also not sure it’s progress? Sure, it’s voting by screen and not paper. I’m just not convinced that’s progress other than using a more sophisticated technology. Let’s at least have one election using online voting that has actually worked before saying let’s all do it.
I think a better way is universal mail-in voting, like a bunch of states out west have done for years. It doesn’t depend on developing entire new systems, doesn’t require everyone to have a stable internet connection, is secure (especially with the 2 envelope system), and it’s accurate.
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I live in Colorado and we have mail-in voting. I received my ballot about 3 weeks before the election, filled it out, and took it to a nearby drop-box. It was very simple and easy. You can also mail your ballot in.
I used ballottrax to track the status of my ballot. It told me when my ballot had been sent to me through mail (Oct 9th), when it had been received after I turned it into the drop-box (Oct 14th), and when it had been accepted (Oct 14th).
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@FarmerJayhawk it most definitely is progress. It relies on much more stable, cheaper means of transportation of data. It means that upgrades in process / ballot contents could be deployed much more quickly and without enormous costs (see removal of dead people from the ballot). It cracks the door on direct democracy. What do you think about direct democracy? Do you believe people can and will make informed choices when entrusted with more opportunities to vote on policy? Do you think that is a good thing? I do, and I do again. There will take some learning and have hiccups but yes, I believe in the people.
As far as mail in being better because people don’t have computers, what about people who don’t have homes? Do you need an address to get mailed a ballot? There should always be a physical backup solution just as absentee has been our backup to date.
I only say “in theory” because there are those who know more than me about this, but I have confidence that it can be done. I fully agree we can roll this out on a smaller scale and build up, but ultimately I don’t think that security is what will hold us back from getting there.
I would think that just as banks have fraud detection looking for anomolyous data, you would use machine learning to identify potential fraudulent voting as votes are cast. Even analog votes now should be used as training models for fraud detection in eventual online systems.
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@approxinfinity said in All Politicked Out? Election 2020:
@FarmerJayhawk it most definitely is progress. It relies on much more stable, cheaper means of transportation of data. It means that upgrades in process / ballot contents could be deployed much more quickly and without enormous costs (see removal of dead people from the ballot). It cracks the door on direct democracy. What do you think about direct democracy? Do you believe people can and will make informed choices when entrusted with more opportunities to vote on policy? Do you think that is a good thing? I do, and I do again. There will take some learning and have hiccups but yes, I believe in the people.
As far as mail in being better because people don’t have computers, what about people who don’t have homes? Do you need an address to get mailed a ballot? There should always be a physical backup solution just as absentee has been our backup to date.
I only say “in theory” because there are those who know more than me about this, but I have confidence that it can be done. I fully agree we can roll this out on a smaller scale and build up, but ultimately I don’t think that security is what will hold us back from getting there.
I would think that just as banks have fraud detection looking for anomolyous data, you would use machine learning to identify potential fraudulent voting as votes are cast. Even analog votes now should be used as training models for fraud detection in eventual online systems.
Very much not a fan of direct democracy. I hate ballot referenda and wish we’d just get rid of them. The language is usually very confusing (like voting yes actually means no and the like), and voters generally aren’t familiar with the issue on the ballot. Half of American adults can’t even name all three branches of government, so I definitely don’t trust the electorate to vote on complicated matters of policy. And I say that as an instructor in a school of public policy. Even students routinely get basic things wrong about how things work (e.g. a common exam answer is “the Supreme Court should say thing X is unconstitutional.” Well, they can’t just do that.
Can you imagine getting Americans up to speed on a really complex, convoluted piece of legislation like the ACA, when most people can’t even tell you the difference between a copay and deductible or average vs. marginal tax rates? Or Dodd-Frank, which regulated markets most people don’t even know exist, let alone understand? I’m perfectly happy entrusting to elected representatives with the responsibility to represent my interests. Even as a policy guy, I don’t know every issue and don’t have the time to dig into a lot of them. When it was my full time job, I could keep a closer eye on things but frankly Americans have better, healthier things to do than politics.
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@FarmerJayhawk I think this is where the governing body needs to curate the content better, determining what items their constituents would would want a direct say on and use very clear and deliberate language. This requires the elected official to have a desire to represent a majority of his constituents and not just his party’s view, obviously.
I honestly have no idea about the process of how referenda end up on the ballot now. I agree the language seems deliberately confusing and vague.
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I would think that not obstructing the will of the people by partisan politics and being able to call on a popular vote ad hoc whenever it made sense in clear, concise, meaningful terms (by the online system I’m proposing) should be a serious feather in a politicians cap when seeking reelection and a wonderful way to break down partisanism.
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What a sad speech from POTUS. He’s going to incite violence.
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Well. Now would be a good time for Yertle The Turtle to show his spine and how unevil he is and denounce Trumps attempts to incite a Civil War.
Not hide in his shell. Denounce it.
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Listening to Rick Santorum pretend to have a heart by admitting facts that he conveniently ignored for the last 24 hours…
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@approxinfinity said in All Politicked Out? Election 2020:
Listening to Rick Santorum
Here’s your problem.
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Well is it not possible to find a Republican politician right now with the integrity to say loudly that Trump is divisive, a liar, and anti-democratic? I don’t think it is, because to do so means leaving themselves vulnerable.
Pathetic. There can only be better days ahead, but not for the Republicans if they can’t denounce deplorable actions like this in real time.
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Rep. Kenzinger had a strong statement. Sen. Sasse as well.
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@FarmerJayhawk said in All Politicked Out? Election 2020:
Rep. Kenzinger had a strong statement. Sen. Sasse as well.
Thanks for this. I will check it out. Glimmer of hope.
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Some guys who voted not to impeach. Great
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They also don’t directly denounce the President. Say his name.
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More memes? Hell yeah.
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@approxinfinity said in All Politicked Out? Election 2020:
They also don’t directly denounce the President. Say his name.
Ask and ye shall receive. https://twitter.com/larryhogan/status/1324507449286676484?s=21
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@FarmerJayhawk very nice. Liked and commented.
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I do think you’ll see R’s dump Trump like a bad habit as this thing is increasingly dire for him. Georgia looks gone, Nevada is gone, and then PA, AZ don’t matter. Though Biden will eventually win them both.
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@FarmerJayhawk I’m skeptical. I think it’s going to be very hard to divorce themselves from 69 million votes. I doubt there are many direct public denouncements.
If they do, they’ll be likely to fall in line when he runs again in 2024 as it has been reported he would do, or when Don Jr or some equivalent guy pulls into town with a similar act.
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@approxinfinity just saying, zero prominent Republicans are supporting Trump’s bizarre claims. He’s increasingly isolated and we’re only 48 hours out.
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Georgia. What an amazing turnaround there for Democrats to get to 2 Senate runoffs. We’ll see how it plays out; that Jan 5th runoff will have both parties’ full attention.
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Pennsylvania should be done by morning. Trump is toast.
The runoffs will be wild. I think Perdue definitely wins (Ossoff is just bad) but Loeffler has a wild one. She’s less popular and up against a better candidate in Rev. Warnock
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More important maybe than Biden potentially taking Georgia is Perdue dropping below 50% to force a runoff. January 5th for the senate. I’m not too optimistic about getting both seats but at least there’s a chance.
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So currently Perdue has 2,448,369 and Ossoff has 2,347,307 with Shane Hazel, the Libertarian, getting 113,613.
2016, the Senate race: Republican 2,135,806, Democrat: 1,599,726, Libertarian: 162,260
Do you think the numbers on the runoff will be as juiced without Trump on the ticket? Who does that favor? I can’t imagine how intense the get-out-the-vote movement will be for a Senate race.
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If there is a silver lining here, either way, the American public will get the point hammered home without distraction that the Senate is the true seat of power in United States politics.
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Spanberger, my House Rep lost her shit on her fellow democrats on a call today, telling them to never use the word socialist again and to distance themselves from the defund the police movement: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/11/05/house-democrats-angry-over-election-losses-leaders-promises-answers/6179057002/
If you’ll recall, she was one of the House Democrats that called for impeachment, and I’m happy she won reelection.
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I can’t see D’s being that motivated. They got their main objective. How much appetite among lower propensity voters (especially the youths) to turn out for a Senate primary in January?
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@approxinfinity said in All Politicked Out? Election 2020:
Spanberger, my House Rep lost her shit on her fellow democrats on a call today, telling them to never use the word socialist again and to distance themselves from the defund the police movement: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/11/05/house-democrats-angry-over-election-losses-leaders-promises-answers/6179057002/
If you’ll recall, she was one of the House Democrats that called for impeachment, and I’m happy she won reelection.
She’s so, so right. A lot of the voters D’s really want, and lost ground with in 2020 vs. 2016, are more conservative than the liberal whites who run the party.
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I don’t know man, BLM turned out the vote in Georgia. They’ve got momentum, they’re organized, and still mad as hell, especially if Trump keeps running his mouth. Time may deflate Trump supporters more than the Democrats.
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Let’s go socialism. Defund the police. I’ll be donating money to the democratic cause in Georgia.
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@KirkIsMyHinrich said in All Politicked Out? Election 2020:
Let’s go socialism. Defund the police. I’ll be donating money to the democratic cause in Georgia.
Please, please, please, Democrats run on this in every race.
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I’m ready to put Pelosi out to pasture after this one.
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As long as we get rid of Feinstein first.
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@approxinfinity said in All Politicked Out? Election 2020:
I don’t know man, BLM turned out the vote in Georgia. They’ve got momentum, they’re organized, and still mad as hell, especially if Trump keeps running his mouth. Time may deflate Trump supporters more than the Democrats.
For a Presidential, sure. How much do they have left in the tank? Are they going to come out for Jon freaking Ossoff? Maybe the whitest white dude ever to be white? The senior vote will be there for the GOP. The rural vote will be there. Will college kids vote? It’s tougher for me to find the 50% for D’s than R’s is all I’m saying.
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@KirkIsMyHinrich said in All Politicked Out? Election 2020:
As long as we get rid of Feinstein first.
Yes please. I think its time for the House leadership to come from the battlegrounds and not from the California Ivory Tower. Be more machiavellian about it. Put your capital near the warfront.
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@FarmerJayhawk said in All Politicked Out? Election 2020:
@approxinfinity said in All Politicked Out? Election 2020:
I don’t know man, BLM turned out the vote in Georgia. They’ve got momentum, they’re organized, and still mad as hell, especially if Trump keeps running his mouth. Time may deflate Trump supporters more than the Democrats.
For a Presidential, sure. How much do they have left in the tank? Are they going to come out for Jon freaking Ossoff? Maybe the whitest white dude ever to be white? The senior vote will be there for the GOP. The rural vote will be there. Will college kids vote? It’s tougher for me to find the 50% for D’s than R’s is all I’m saying.
lolol
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Nobody ever accused them of being good at this. DiFi will survive. Even though she’s like 85, she’s a battle axe. She went through some ish in San Fran and won’t go lightly. Like last time when she buried the California Senate President. My hunch is Pelosi will too. She kept her entire caucus together after losing 60+ seats in 2010.
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They can keep gettin’ dem checks. Just pass the torch. I nominate the freshmen democrats that called for impeachment when this country needed it:
All of them won reelection. Only 1 is in California. Freshman female reps with military backgrounds and integrity. Winners.
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Lindsey Graham endorsing Trump today, little shiny slimeball that he is.
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Rick Santorum now saying that he’s getting lots of “testimonial videos” from “friends” reporting widespread fraud. Is he referring to twitter trolls? This guy has lots of friends?
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Former pols always have a lot of friends
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@approxinfinity do they drop the libertarian?
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@FarmerJayhawk said in All Politicked Out? Election 2020:
@approxinfinity said in All Politicked Out? Election 2020:
I don’t know man, BLM turned out the vote in Georgia. They’ve got momentum, they’re organized, and still mad as hell, especially if Trump keeps running his mouth. Time may deflate Trump supporters more than the Democrats.
For a Presidential, sure. How much do they have left in the tank? Are they going to come out for Jon freaking Ossoff? Maybe the whitest white dude ever to be white? The senior vote will be there for the GOP. The rural vote will be there. Will college kids vote? It’s tougher for me to find the 50% for D’s than R’s is all I’m saying.
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@approxinfinity said in All Politicked Out? Election 2020:
@FarmerJayhawk said in All Politicked Out? Election 2020:
@approxinfinity said in All Politicked Out? Election 2020:
I don’t know man, BLM turned out the vote in Georgia. They’ve got momentum, they’re organized, and still mad as hell, especially if Trump keeps running his mouth. Time may deflate Trump supporters more than the Democrats.
For a Presidential, sure. How much do they have left in the tank? Are they going to come out for Jon freaking Ossoff? Maybe the whitest white dude ever to be white? The senior vote will be there for the GOP. The rural vote will be there. Will college kids vote? It’s tougher for me to find the 50% for D’s than R’s is all I’m saying.
lolol
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@Crimsonorblue22 said in All Politicked Out? Election 2020:
@approxinfinity do they drop the libertarian?
Yes. Only the top 2 move on in each race.
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@Crimsonorblue22 said in All Politicked Out? Election 2020:
@approxinfinity do they drop the libertarian?
Yup!
@FarmerJayhawk They need to play this on repeat down there of Perdue deliberately mispronouncing Kamala Harris’ name at a Trump Rally:
