Poor Defense Appears Fatal; We Shall Overcome
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If it wasn’t for that damn juggernaut perfect Calimari storm in 2012, that KU squad was a team of destiny.
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Very interesting and well through out post. I do have a few questions that hopefully you can answer.
First, if I recall correctly, Pomeroy defensive efficiency was at one time a lot higher, I seem to remember in the 70s and now it sits at 30 which would appear to indicate that defense has improved as the season moved forward and had the team played better defense earlier the number might be lower.
Next, the conference is better this year than last and teams cannot overlook any opponents and bottom of the conference OU can beat WSU on the road and KSU can beat Baylor on the road and at a neutral site. OSU is currently ranked as #1 in offensive efficiency by KenPom. Nobody could have predicted that KU would win the conference by 4 games, I certainly did not, and yet it managed to do so against all odds. Luck alone cannot explain the result so it appears that KU, like most great teams, does not need luck since it apparently makes its own luck. This is an extremely powerful argument since it shows that KU can close the deal in close games, something that was missing in past teams.
Last, Mason has had a season for the ages and winning the Title would not only validate his season but the team’s as well. This is powerful motivation to move forward in a format when one bad game sends you home. As you mentioned, guards win tournaments and KU has a great, arguably the best, although the center is still the Achilles heel if Lucas gets in foul trouble; luckily KU also has two 6’8" players that can compensate some. A good tournament by Bragg and to a lesser extent Coleby could be the ultimate difference.
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Nice in theory but what has Bragg or Coleby done to lead you to believe they are capable of a 6 game sustained run? Then again that might be asking too much in general, just patch 5 games (the first game is essentially free, NO WHAMMY NO WHAMMY NO WHAMMY NO JINX) together out of the entire post composite. Louisville worries me with their bigs, maybe they will choke.
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When I look at your two lists for DE it seems like fairly wide dispersion around a mean…
Further, in the first list, Duke’s 2015 team and UConn’s 2011 team stand out as both most similar to this 2017 KU team in reliance on offense, and to significantly have poorer than average defensive efficiency ratings, though not as poor as 2017 KU. The Duke and UConn teams seem like miner’s canaries for us to focus on. What would be interesting to know is if their offensive efficiencies were unusually high and so allowed them to be a little weaker and still win.
Here is a QA thought.
How about weighting the defensive efficiency rankings for each of the teams listed, but especially Duke and UConn, with season average for points per possession.
DE x PPP = DE weighted for PPP (a measure of offensive efficiency).
If DE weighted for PPP were similar for UConn, Duke and 2017 KU we might all sleep better for the next few weeks.
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I did not say they are, simply that if they do it could be a game changer. Remember Perry? He had a pretty non-descript freshman year until the conference tournament when he turned the switch on and never looked back and as they say, the rest is history.
We have seen at times flashes of what, Bragg and to a lesser extent Coleby, can do but they have not been consistent. Again, I don’t know if they will do it but I certainly hope they do.
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Bravo! One of the best posts to grace the boards in many a moon.
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It’s 11pm and I just caught your post. I’m tired and off to bed with a long day ahead but I feel like it is Christmas eve and you have given me a big present to open tomorrow! Can’t wait.
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Love this post; love the Talking Heads. Rock Chalk!
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Some good news. Kansas does rank in the top 25 in Luck per Pomeroy.
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@Blown said:
Some good news. Kansas does rank in the top 25 in Luck per Pomeroy.
I think “luck” simply means “wins close games”.
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You think a lot !!
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Nice post HEM. One typo though, the sprint center is East of Allen Fieldhouse. Allen Fieldhouse West is Manhattan, thankfully there are no NCAA games in that hole.
KU’s defense scares me this year, but the offense thrills me. With Frank in charge KU will be in every game. Hopefully Devonte and others feel the urgency that Frank has demonstrated all season. Too bad Frank didn’t have more company in the gym this summer!
I was waiting on last years team to win it all for four years. You could see it coming, then it didn’t. This year I don’t have as high of expectations as last season even though I think this team is more consistnent. The margin for error is much smaller this season than last, they just perform near their ceiling more often.
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@Blown guys you choose when picking teams
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@dylans yeah, I don’t feel the same urgency with Devonte. Appears as though he is coasting at times.
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The coach at UC Davis is the former coach of Bradley.
Just sayin’
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@HighEliteMajor Man, perfectly put! Nothing to add. D cost us the IowaSt game in AFH, and the TCU-KansasCityYMCA-Debacle. You’ve been giving us caviar lately, HEM. Not Karviar, but we see even he was able to beat us. Defense: a BillSelf101 concept.
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Just a thought regarding our D. When we play a good 3pt shooting team, why don’t we NOT offer as much help inside, and guard the wide open 3 shooter who is waiting for the kick-out pass from the driving player? I would rather have them shoot an inside contested shot, than a wide open 3. This seems to kill us all too often. Of course, it is preferred to keep our man in front of us, as to not allow the penetration in the first place. .
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Pick your poison, but if we help less off shooters and open the drive even more, Lucas might get fouled up and then what?
Self must be teaching a "protect Landen " D.
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Allen Fieldhouse Mountain?
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@mayjay both places Boulder and the big horse apple
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@dylans Yeah, but I just miss the stories about people going to Boulder from Kansas because they could get tickets. Didn’t UColo one year require that people buy season tickets in order to get the KU game?
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Yes and I believe Texas does that the same thing now.
I remember when Nebraska fans used to come to Lawrence for football since it was the only way they could watch their team live.
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@JayHawkFanToo said:
Yes and I believe Texas does that the same thing now.
I remember when Nebraska fans used to come to Lawrence for football since it was the only way they could watch their team live.
UT did it for one year when Steve Patterson was AD. There were still a bunch of KU fans there that year because there were a bunch of tickets on the secondary market. I think that was either 2013 or 2014, but that lasted only for one year.
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I believe you posted that before and I was not sure if they still dd it. Thanks for the assist.
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@JayHawkFanToo said:
I remember when Nebraska fans used to come to Lawrence for football since it was the only way they could watch their team live.
Oh yeah, back in the day when there were more visitors in the stands than home crowd.
WAIT…
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I’ve been one of your disciples for a long time.
I’ve never seen you commit this hard to fate. You have always been the firm pragmatist; writing novel-length posts to properly give your message it’s due respect. You are the guy who doesn’t shave corners. You have the hardheadedness necessary to be a successful head coach. That is why I’ve always referred to you as “Coach.” I’ve always respected you because you are “all in” concerning your beliefs.
So what you post here has really given me an extra shot of optimism. All the printed words and stats simply push to “NO” for Kansas this year. This would usually give you enough material to support the “NO” prediction.
But you went for the “eye test” instead. You went for the “heart test” instead. You FEEL the presence of Frank Mason… a guy we would all feel comfortable with us as our sidekick in any battle, from Iraq to the Final Four!
Let’s go get this done!
Done Losin’!
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@HighEliteMajor Who are you, and how much of my kool-aid have you been drinking?
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@Blown said:
Some good news. Kansas does rank in the top 25 in Luck per Pomeroy.
Noticed our first Foe is even luckier! They’re lucky they get to face Kansas!
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Again you have come through with a gem.
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Good to see one of your well-thought-out posts- everything you says makes sense.
Please, ye BB gods, give us the gift of a Hot Streak, some luck thrown in, and frank-and-boys will do the rest
Including you svi … especially you
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@HighEliteMajor Sweet post! That was kick ass!
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@HighEliteMajor said:
- KenPom Defensive Efficiency: Using a different metric, KenPom’s efficiency ratings, the news doesn’t get any better. No NCAA title winner since 2004 has been worse than 21 in at the KenPom ratings regarding defensive efficiency. KU is now at 30.
-2004: UConn 5
-2005: UNC 7
-2006: Florida 7
-2007: Florida 15
-2008: Kansas 1
The numbers you cite for past years are kenpom’s calculations after the tournaments are over.
As of the Purdue game, KU has now moved up to third in the kenpom rankings, and second among teams that are still alive. Offensive efficiency has improved to 3, and defensive efficiency to 23.
KU keeps winning and our kenpom defensive efficiency will move up to the teens without question.
This is not to say your overall analysis is wrong, it’s just that the numbers you have only allow you to compare apples with green apples.
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@ParisHawk You are correct. And it’s a good point to make. We were terrific defensively last night … why? Coach Self.
